John Howard, Peter Costello and Malcolm Turnbull will lose their seats at this year's election, along with 11 other federal ministers, if state polling averages persist.
An analysis of past ACNielsen polls has revealed as many as 46 of the 87 Liberal and National seats will be lost.
The analysis, published in today's Fairfax newspapers, is a projection of the federal election result based on state-by-state polling averages over the past six months relative to the 2004 election.
Overall, the analysis shows a two-party preferred vote of 57 percent for Labor and 43 percent for the coalition — a national swing of 9.8 per cent to Labor.
But the swing is not uniform, ACNielsen's research director, John Stirton, has stressed. It ranges from 13 percent in Queensland to 3.7 percent in Western Australia.
In NSW, the coalition will lose 12 of its 27 seats if a 9.6 percent swing to Labor is replicated at the election, the analysis shows.
Not only does Prime Minister Howard face the loss of his seat of Bennelong, but a uniform swing would knock out of parliament the possible leadership contender Malcolm Turnbull, who is the environment minister and member for Wentworth, and ministers Jim Lloyd, Gary Nairn and Kerry Bartlett.
In Victoria, a 10.1 percent swing to Labor suggests a wipe-out of 10 of the coalition's 18 seats. Half of them belong to ministers, namely Treasurer Peter Costello, Andrew Robb, Bruce Bilson, Peter McGauran and Fran Bailey.
In Queensland, the coalition will lose 16 of its 21 on a 13.2 percent swing to the ALP, including those of ministers Warren Truss, Peter Dutton and Mal Brough.
In South Australia and the Northern Territory, an 11.8 percent swing puts six seats at risk, including that of Christopher Pyne.
Even in Western Australia, the only state where the coalition is ahead of Labor, a 3.7 percent swing towards the ALP has put two Liberal seats in doubt.